As one of the driving forces of macroeconomic growth, consumption has driven GDP by more than 60% in recent years. At the same time, the level of per capita disposable income is also rising. Based on this, residents' demand for consumer goods is not only satisfied with filling the gap, which is reflected not only in the food and beverage industry, but also in the furniture and household appliances industry.
Furniture and household appliances are important components of the residential area, and they are the most direct embodiment of residential consumption. Judging from the past development history, both of them have passed the golden development period of the industry. Although the scale of the former exceeds one trillion yuan, the whole industry has maintained the characteristics of "large industry, small company" in the past. The entry threshold of enterprises is low, and the products are still only satisfied with practicability and low cost. The peak period of the home appliance industry was in the 1990s. After more than ten years of penetration, the consumption power of household appliances in the first and second tier cities tends to be flat. In the future, the growth point of these two industries will come from the pursuit of functional, comfortable, high-end and intelligent products under the upgrading of residents' consumption. We are optimistic about the growth investment opportunities of customized furniture and small household appliances under consumption upgrading.
According to wind's statistical data, in 2015, the contribution rate of domestic residents' consumption expenditure to GDP was as high as 60.9%, 12.1 percentage points higher than that in 2014, which has maintained an upward trend for three consecutive years. At the same time, the income level of residents is also rising. In 2015, China's per capita disposable income reached 21900 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, higher than the GDP growth rate of 6.9%.
However, compared with the annual growth of consumption and income level, residents' consumption in the furniture industry has continued to decrease. The data show that the furniture manufacturing industry began to fluctuate and decline after reaching a high of 30.78% in 2010. By the end of 2015, the growth rate had dropped to the historical low level of 9.3%.
The decline of furniture manufacturing industry is not without reasons, in addition to the slowdown in real estate growth, product quality is also one of the main problems. Although the scale of China's home furnishing industry exceeds one trillion yuan, due to the low technical threshold, the whole industry presents a pattern of "big industry, small company". By the end of 2015, the number of domestic furniture manufacturing enterprises reached 5290, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, approaching the historical peak. With more individual businesses, not only the production efficiency is low, but the product quality naturally has problems. Moreover, in order to compete in the market, most furniture manufacturers only consider the practicability of function and low price, but ignore the molding of their own brand image and product function diversification, so it is difficult to form competitiveness and agglomerate downstream customer groups.
With the increase of per capita disposable income, residents' demand for furniture has changed from practical type to personalized and comfortable type. Therefore, we can see that the subdivision field of customized furniture based on Personalized Customization has developed rapidly in recent years. Bosch data shows that in recent years, the revenue of customized furniture enterprises has maintained a high-speed growth of 30-50%, greatly exceeding the average growth level of the industry. For the future growth, the report released by China Architectural Decoration Association shows that the market share of customized furniture is only about 20% in China's overall furniture market, especially wood furniture, with a penetration rate of less than 10%. Referring to the foreign market penetration rate of 60-70%, the market expansion space is extremely broad. It is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of more than 18% in the next five years. Customized furniture will become the plant protein beverage in the former soft drinks, and enjoy a growth better than the average level of the industry due to consumption upgrading.
We have not verified the accuracy of the above data, but from the secondary market point of view, listed companies involving customized furniture can indeed obtain higher valuation level. At present, there are not many enterprises involved in the field of customized furniture in listed companies, mainly Sofia (002572, stock bar), harleker (603898, stock bar), Bunny (002043, stock bar), etc., among which Sofia is a worthy leader. Since the transformation of the "customized" strategy in 2013, the stock price has run out of the long bull trend. Recently, the stock price is still reaching new highs, and the dynamic P / E ratio is nearly 120 times. Harleker is a new stock, not good to comment on. Rabbit baby's stock price is also close to the bull market high recently, the dynamic P / E ratio is about 120 times. It is worth noting that some people have included Meck home (600337, stock bar) into the customized furniture industry. It is true that the company is involved in this field, but we prefer to think that Merck is the first brand of high-end furniture in China, and it is also classified as luxury goods in the industry division of China Securities Regulatory Commission, MEC is Maotai (600519, stock bar) in the household, which is a higher class than Sofia. Although Maotai is good, its price is high. At present, the central level of domestic consumption has not reached the time when everyone can afford it. Therefore, it is reasonable for its stock price to hover at a low level temporarily.
Of course, it's not just a concept that makes these listed companies perform so well. According to the performance express in the first half of 2016, Sofia's net profit was nearly 200 million yuan, which still maintained a high growth rate of 48% over the same period of last year. Rabbit baby's performance is better. It is estimated that the profit of 1H is 91.28 million yuan-99.1 million yuan, with a substantial increase of 250% - 280% year-on-year. However, the high growth in the first quarter will also lay a solid foundation for the performance forecast in the first half of the year.